Mechanical change - change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. Due to migrations that happen:
· External;
· Internal;
· Seasonal;
· Pendulum.
Absolute Movement of the population - V.
Number of arrivals - P.
Absolute mechanical increase - n fur. \u003d P-B.
The intensity of the mechanical movement characterizes the following relative indicators :
1) arrival coefficient – ;
2) retirement coefficient – ;
3) the coefficient of mechanical increase – ;
To characterize the change in the number due to the natural movement of the population and due to migrations is calculated the coefficient of total increase:
3) to O.P. \u003d K eat. Pri. + To fur. Prier.
72. 2.5. Calculations of perspective number
Population
In the system of indicators characterizing the state and development of the country's economic, political and cultural life, the important role is played perspective calculation of the population, which are based on hypotheses relative to future birth rate, mortality and migration.
Perspective calculations of the population are produced on the basis of the population obtained both according to the data of the population censuses and on current estimates, fertility tables and mortality, current statistical reporting. The calculations take into account the migration of the population between urban settlements and rural areas, between regions within Russia and external migration.
Forecast fertility and mortality rates, which are defined for each territory, there is a result of special scientific research based on state statistics and special sample surveys.
For promising calculations of the population, the mobile method is applied by the ages of age. The essence of this method is as follows.
The census was registered a certain number of people in this age group ( SX, T.). A year later, these people will move to the next age group, while they will wait until next year in a certain relation, which is taken from the mortality tables in the form of a survival coefficient there ( Px.). If you multiply the population in the age group ( SX, T.) to the appropriate coefficient of survival (Px, t), the value obtained will characterize the population in the next age group ( SX.+1, t.+1). To determine the population in the following years, the operation is repeated. General view of the calculation:
S (X.+1,t.+1) = S.(x.,t.)*P.(x.,t.) + W.(x.,t.)
where W.(x.,t.) - the volume of migration laid in the calculation distributed by sex and age.
The expected number of born in the year ( t.) is calculated by multiplying the number of women aged 15-49 years to the corresponding fertility coefficients ( FX., T) obtained from the fertility tables. The calculation can be submitted by the formula:
N.(t.) = S.(15,t.)*F.(15,t.) + ..... + S.(49,t.)*F.(49,t.)
N.(t.) - the number of born,
S. - The average annual number of women.
The forwarding number of dead a year ( t.) It is defined as the difference between the population at the beginning of the year and the population, moved at the end of the year. The calculation of the number of dead is carried out by the formula:
M.(t.) \u003d S (1- P.(x.,t.)*S.(x, t.)) + N.(t.)*(1-P.(N.,t.))
x. = 0
M.(t.) - the number of dead,
P.(N.,t.) - The coefficient of surviving newborns by the end of the year.
Calculations of the prospective number of population are conducted through one-year age groups (from 0 to 100 years), separately for men and women, the city and rural population of the republics as part of Russia, edges, regions. The promising population of the Russian Federation is obtained as the sum of the results of the calculation on the regions included in it. At the same time, the peculiarities of the population of each region are taken into account in promising calculation.
As a result of the calculation, data are obtained on the total number of urban and rural population, the population of the sex and age groups, the number of born, dead, natural increase. The calculation program provides for a number of analytical indicators: population growth, population growth rate, the share of urban and rural population, the share of individual age groups in the total population, the indicator of the "demographic load", the ratio of men and women, the total fertility factors, mortality and Natural growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth.
The results of the calculation of the prospective population are analyzed in order to assess their plausibility. For this, it is compared with the indicators of a prospective calculation with the dynamics of the corresponding indicators for the previous years.
The results of the calculation of the prospective number of population affects not only the future dynamics of fertility and mortality, but also the age structure of the population. Thus, the change in the number of women aged 15-49 years (especially 20-29 years), associated with the fluctuations of the birth numbers in previous years, will affect the growth or decrease in the number of born and general fertility coefficients in a promising calculation. The increase in the number and share of the population of older ages in the total population (the so-called "aging" population) will lead to an increase in the number of dead and general mortality rates.
To study the effects of fertility, mortality and migration on the results of a promising calculation of the population, multivariate calculations are made, which take into account various levels of indicators of population reproduction and migration.
Currently, the State Statistics Committee of Russia calculated two options for calculating the prospective population of the population until 2005, which provide for the following scenarios of demographic development. The "average" option suggests that by the beginning of the next century the consequences of the demographic crisis will be overcome and mortality stabilizes, and the birth rate is established at the level characteristic of Europe, North America and Japan. According to this option, the population at the end of the period will be about 143 million years. The "pessimistic" option involves the continuation of the negative trends of the demographic development established in the 1990s, it provides for a further decrease in the birth rate and the increase in mortality. According to this option, the population of Russia will decrease to 136 million people. The "pessimistic" option of the forecast can be considered as a warning forecast.
Theme IV.
Statistics of labor resources and their use
A labor person belongs to a decisive role in the development of economic activities, improving its organization and management in order to gain the greatest return on its creative work.
People invent and produce the tools of labor and the means of production, organize a rational separation and cooperation of labor at various levels of production activities from the workplace and ending with the organization within the framework of the entire national economy.
Working force, as a set of physical and spiritual abilities of a person, is the main productive power of society and is the labor resources of all enterprises and institutions belonging to various sectors of the national economy.
Labor resources of each unit produced are part of labor resources distributed by sectors.
The statistical characteristic of the availability of labor resources of the enterprise, institutions, associations, industries, agriculture, construction or transport separately or the entire national economic complex is the list of employees engaged in them.
The statistics of each industry of the national economy studies the following issues related to the use of live labor:
1. Statistics of labor resources and their use;
2. labor productivity statistics;
3. Wage statistics.
Statistics of labor resources in turn shares into two parts: workforce statistics and work time statistics.
The main tasks of the workforce statistics are the study of the number and composition of employees, studying the change in the number of employees; assessment of the company's security by labor resources; study of the organization of labor and the use of employees in relevant qualifications; Learning work discipline.
The tasks of working time statistics are:
1. Determination of the total time of spent time;
2. Studying the use of working time and identifying working time loss.
Population - Historically established and renewable combination of people living in a certain territory.
Indicator of population includes all those in both ages of any age and the state of health living in the admin boundaries of the state regardless of the actual location. It includes all categories and groups of residents, regardless of the degree of economic activity and the ability to any activity at all.
The most complete source of information about population are census(every 10 years).
The number of permanent population is determined by the formula 
- Number of the population 
- Cash number 
- the number of temporary missing 
- the number of temporarily living
The number of cash is calculated as follows.
Changing the population due to fertility and mortality is called natural population movement.
Fertility coefficient (P)represents the ratio of the number of living children born for the year to the average annual number of cash ( 
) per thousand people: 
.
Mortality rate (T)represents the ratio of the number of those who died for the year (M)to the average annual population ( 
):
.
Natural growth ratio(KEST) is determined by the formula 
.
Fatality vitality(K g) is the ratio of the number of those born to the number of dead. It characterizes the excess of fertility over mortality: how many times people are born more than dying: 
.
Under mechanical movement of the population It is understood to change its number by migration. There are internal (change in the permanent residence within the country), external (entry or departure from the country for permanent residence permit), seasonal (change in the number of cash during certain periods of the year), pendulum migration (daily movement of people from their place of residence to the place of work or training and back).
An absolute and relative migration indicators are used to characterize the mechanical movement.
Absolute indicators:
Relative indicatorscharacterizing the intensity of migration processes:
In assessing the situation in the labor market, a trace of labor resources are distinguished:
1. Economically active population;
A. Busy in the economy;
B. Unemployed.
economically inactive population;
Labor resources - This is a population capable of labor in the age and health status.
Economically active population (work force) -this is a part of the settlement of both sexes that provides its work for the production of material values, goods and services. Economically inactive population - this is the population of working age, which is not part of the workforce, that is, busy and unemployed. This group includes the following categories:
students and students, listeners and cadets attending day schools (including day graduate schools and doctoral studies);
non-working retirees;
persons engaged in housekeeping, care for children, sick relatives, etc.;
persons who stopped searching for work, having exhausted all the possibilities of obtaining it, which may and are ready to work;
other persons who do not need to work independently of the source of their income, and other categories of citizens.
Busy in the economy (Working) - These are faces aged 16 years and older, as well as the faces of younger ages, to unemployed , according to the definition of the IL, belongs to the ages established for measuring the economic activity of the population, for which the three criteria listed below were observed simultaneously:
did not have work (income-generating classes);
we were looking for work (independently or with the help of employment services);
were ready to start work immediately (during the next period of time).
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The mechanical movement of the population is a change in population population, regions, countries by migration.
Migration is the movement of people across the boundaries of certain territories with a variety of residence. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators: a) number of arrivals; b) the number of retired; c) migration growth.
Relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population are:
one). The arrival ratio shows the number of arrivals per thousand population:
2). The disposal coefficient shows the number of retired per thousand people:
.
3). The coefficient of migration growth shows an increase or loss of the population as a result of migration per thousand people of the population:
,
Overall formation ratio: CBD \u003d (marriages (divorce) / average population) * 1000
The coefficient of unstable marriages to \u003d divorce numbers / number of marriages
The population statistics studies the reproduction of the population, that is, the change of generations. To study reproduction, a mortality table is used, it is calculated based on the study of the conditional generation of those born in one year. The size of the conditional generation is 100 thousand.
To study reproduction, a mortality table is used, it is calculated based on the study of the conditional generation of those born in one year. The size of the conditional generation is 100 thousand.
Mortality Table For each age, other indicators are calculated.
1) L x-loyed to the age of x years
2) D x-one dead at the age of years
3) q x \u003d d x / l x-brightness to die for the coming year of life
4) p x \u003d (l x +1) / l x - probability to live until next year
5) L x \u003d (l x + l x +1) / 2 - the average number of living at the age of years.
6) TX \u003d sums Li Number of upcoming people-years of life
7) E X O \u003d TX / LX- average life expectancy
8) px \u003d l x +1 / lx Coefficient of recovery or permitting age.
33. Economically active and inactive nonsense. Absolute and relative indicators.Economically active population - Part of the population that offers work for the production of goods or services.
EAN \u003d fact. Hound + unemployed
ENOM composition:
The economically active population (called also working force) includes two categories - occupied and unemployed.
The faces of both sexes from 16 years and older, as well as the faces of younger age, are engaged in engaged in the age of 16:
carried out work on hiring for remuneration, money or with them was paid in kind, as well as other work that brought income;
temporarily absent at work due to: diseases or injuries; weekend days; annual holidays; various kinds of vacations both with preservation of content and without maintaining content, ranks; vacations on the initiative of the administration; strikes and other reasons;
carried out without payment at the family enterprise.
The unemployed belongs to persons from 16 years and older who during the period under review:
did not have work (or income-generating classes);
looking for work;
ready were to start work.
Economically inactive population - Population, which is not part of the workforce.
Ann \u003d numbers
The composition of Ann:
Students
Pensioners in old age
Disability pensioners
Housewives
Persons who stop searching for work
Persons, the cat does not need to work independently of income sources
In statistics of economic activity of the population, the following indicators are calculated:
the coefficient of economic activity
2) employment coefficient
3) Unemployment coefficient
4) The duration of unemployment is calculated by the formula of the middle arithmetic weighted and by the formula of the median.
Lecture 7. « Fundamentals of population statistics "
Plan:
Population as an object of statistical study. The main tasks of the statistics of us.
Study of population, main types of groupings.
The main indicators of the natural movement of the population.
The main indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
First you need to remember statistical science structure. Modern statistics - multi-sectoral social science. Allocate level 3:
1st level - general statistic theory- Methodological basis. The core of all sectoral statistics. Develops general principles and methods of statistical research of social phenomena.
On the 2nd level 2 large summary branches were highlighted: economical and social statistics.
On the 3rd level are located separate sections (industries) Economic and social statistics.
Industries of economic statistics - industry statistics, agriculture, construction, transport, communications, labor, natural resources, etc.
In addition, major industry statistics can be divided into smaller sectoral statistics. For example, mechanical engineering statistics
Metallurgy industry statistics
chemistry, etc.
agriculture statistics
Agriculture statistics Statistics of animal husbandry
Social statistics - forms a system of indicators to characterize the lifestyle of the population and various aspects of social relations. It includes:
Population statistics
Politicians
Culture
Health
Enlightenment
Population statistics is a branch of social statistics. The population (especially its working part) is studied within economic statistics, since it is a direct member of the production process and the consumer of its results. The population is the main productive force of society and its most valuable "capital".
Population statistics are the most ancient industry of statistics, because Population accounting was carried out in antiquity in military and economic purposes (military service, taxation, etc.). Certain patterns in the study of mass data were also first revealed in the study of such phenomena as mortality and fertility. When we talked about trends and patterns, we remembered the English economist John County, which in the 17th century for the first time found that the boys are born more than girls (14/13) and that men then die intensively of women, as a result by the end of women's life It becomes more than men. After 3 centuries, the identified relations did not undergo significant changes, as a result of which it was concluded that it was not just a temporary tendency, but a demographic pattern.
So, object studythis industry of statistics is the population and the patterns of its development.
Population- This is a combination of people living within a certain territory: parts of the country, the whole country, groups of countries, the whole globe. Moreover, the population as an object of statistical research has 2 fundamental features: Dynamic and inhomogeneity of the composition. Human Society due to fertility, mortality and migration continuously changes its number and structural proportions. On the other hand, the population is highly differentiated in many assessments - sex, age, nationalities, place of residence, etc. As a result, an inhomogeneous and rapid object is always quite complicated for various accounting operations.
In the statistics of the population allocate the following units of observation:
Man (as an individual) - used most often;
household (for the first time in Russia, household accounting was carried out in 1994 during the microprecy of the population) - accepted in international practice.
The household- living collaboratives who have united their income and material values \u200b\u200b(fully or partially) and jointly carry out costs of consumption of goods and services. These persons may be associated or not related to relationship relations or relationships arising from marriage. The household may consist of one person. Accounting for households in the population census is adopted in most countries of the world and meets the available UN recommendations and other international organizations.
When carrying out the All-Russian Census of 2002, a household was considered as a unit of observation, as was customary in international practice.
Object of statistical observationthere may be a variety of combustion: the population as a whole (permanent or cash), individual population groups (able-bodied population, unemployed, men or women, etc.), born in the year, etc.
The main sources of population statistics are:
current accounting (in the registry offices, Passport and Visa Service of the Department of Internal Affairs)
one-time observations in the form of solid or selective censuses.
Moreover, the primary sources of public information are census, the data of which are then corrected by the amount of born and dead, retired and arrived (according to the information of the current accounting).
The census is held once in a decade, as this is an expensive event. In the former USSR there were 7 censuses of the population (in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989) The first census of Russia was held in 1994. In the form of micro and the latter - in 2002.
Census of the population is carried out forwarding methodwhich gives the most accurate statistical information, so the census program includes a large range of issues.
The population in any settlement is subject to significant changes. Changing the population due to fertility and mortality is called the natural movement of the population. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces, as well as a change in life expectancy. The natural movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators include:
number of born for the year (N);
the number of dead (m);
the absolute natural increase in the population, which is defined as the difference between the number of born and deceased (N-M).
Absolute indicators of the natural movement of the population do not characterize the intensity of its reproduction, as well as they cannot be used for a comparative analysis of the reproduction of the population in various territories. For this purpose, relative indicators of the natural movement of the population are used, which are expressed in the form of coefficients called PROMILL (‰).
The relative coefficients of the natural movement of the population are calculated as the attitude of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average annual population and multiplied by 1000. Relative indicators may be common and private. Common indicators include the fertility rate, mortality and natural movement (growth) of the population. Private indicators include a special fertility rate, child mortality rate, population vitality coefficient, as well as transmitted fertility rates, mortality and natural population growth; Standardized fertility coefficients, mortality and natural population growth.
Relative indicators of the natural movement of the population.
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If to J.<1, то его можно выразить либо в процентах, либо в промилле. Если К ж >1, then in the form of a coefficient. Indicators of the natural movement of the population can be calculated both in general for the country and in separate regions for individual age groups.
In the statistics of the population under mechanical movement, the population moves through the country's territory. The mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators. The main absolute indicators of migration are:
number of arriving on this territory for the year (P);
the number of retired territory for the year (B);
migration balance (migration increase), which is defined as a difference between the arrived and retired (ΔS fur \u003d P-B);
migration turnover, which is the sum of the number of arrivals and retired (MO \u003d P + B).
In statistical calculations, the bulk of migration was obtained the greatest distribution, the value of which characterizes migration increase, if p\u003e in, migration outflow, if<В.
The relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population include the population growth rate and the overall increase in the population.
including:
Methods for calculating the coefficient of total population growth.
The total population is changing due to birth and mortality, as well as through the mechanical movement of the population.
(N-M) - Natural Growth
(P-B) - mechanical increase
This is the relationship of the overall absolute increase in population, natural and mechanical population growth.
The method of calculating the coefficient of the total population depends on the available data.
The listed indicators of the mechanical movement of the population can be calculated both as a whole for the entire population and for various groups of the population (age-related, ethnic, etc.).
With international comparisons, the statistics of the mechanical movement of the population operates with such terms as an immigrant and an emigrant, a worker immigrant and a worker emigrant.
For analytical purposes, the following indicators are calculated for the characteristics of migration flows and flows of migrant workers:
the proportion of international labor migration indicators in relevant indicators of the general migration of the population based on absolute data;
the proportion of emigrants and immigrants in working age in the total number of emigrants and immigrants of this country.
