The term "investment attractiveness" means the existence of investor preference on the preference of an investor in choosing a particular object of investment. The object of investment, the economy of the subject of the Russian Federation is a territorially limited open economic system, seeking to form market relations with broad external relations focused on maximum participation in the world-economic division of labor. In each case, the investor specifies for itself an object of the economic system in which it is assembled to invest money, and then this object is characterized by its own set of the most significant properties of investment attractiveness.
The investment attractiveness of the region (economic system) is a combination of various objective signs, the properties of funds, the possibilities of the system that cause a potential assistance to investment. The investment attractiveness of the region is considered in causal relationship with investment activity in the region.
The investment activity of the region is the intensity of attracting investment in the main capital of the region. Investment attractiveness is a generalized factorial sign (independent variable), and the investment activity of the region is an effective feature (dependent variable). In other words, investment attractiveness - argument (x), and investment activity - the function (y) of investment attractiveness, respectively, can be set by the type and parameters of this objectively existing dependence, i.e. Y \u003d / (x). Investment activity can be actual, i.e. During the reporting period, and the forecast definition of which is also a very urgent task. Depending on the temporary horizon of analysis, management and prediction (as in the case of investment activity), the actual investment attractiveness of the region and the forecast is allocated. The main methodological provisions of their definition are uniform.
Investment attractiveness includes investment potential and investment risk and is characterized by the interaction of these factors.
The investment potential of the region is a set of objective economic, social and natural-geographical properties of the region with high importance to attract investments basically the capital of the region.
Regional investment risks are nonspecific (non-commercial) risks caused by external in relation to investment activities by regional factors (regional origin). Factors include primarily the socio-political situation in the region, the attitude of the population to the process of forming a market economy, the state of the natural environment, etc. The presence of regional investment risks determines the probabilost of incomplete use of the region's investment potential.
In accordance with the methodology, each of the Russian regions is considered through the prism of the formation of its competitiveness, to lay the foundation for which investments in fixed assets - in large-scale investments in new technologies and to the regional social sphere. In other words, the investment attractiveness of Russian regions is considered as an important component of their competitiveness on global and interregional markets.
National investment climate and risks are known, periodically published by the world's leading magazines ( Euigotope THE ECONOMOMIST.), as well as the most famous rating agencies ( Moody "s IBCA). International rating agencies traditional include Russia among developing countries. Over the past few years, Russia's credit rating has increased to the "BB +" marks, as evaluating the agency Fitch Railing., and before the "BB" marks, according to the agency Moody "S. What testifies to the high level of creditworthiness of Russia since 2000. Russia entered the top ten countries with the most dynamic and successfully developing economies, ranking first in the pace of decline in the federal budget debt, the second - among the 30 largest exporters in terms of the growth rate of exports, the fourth - In terms of the growth rate of GDP per capita, the sixth - in terms of the growth of industrial production, seventh - but the growth rates of GDP.
Currently, the problems of assessing the investment potential of the region are considered quite widely. There are many techniques, each of which uses certain approaches to the formation of the structure of factors and assessment methods.
Methods of the Council for the Study of Productive Forces Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and RAS (authors - I. I. Ryzman, I. V. Grishin, A. G. Shakhnazarov and others), according to which the structural elements of the region's investment climate are investment potential, investment risks, investment attractiveness and activity.
Methodology for analyzing factorsbased on the construction of models: factor and regression. Regression analysis focuses on the identification of the weight of each of the factor sign, affecting the result, on the quantitative assessment of the pure effects of this factor. The focus of factor analysis is made on the study of the internal causes that form the specifics of the phenomenon under study, on identifying generalized factors. Factor analysis does not require a priori division of signs on dependent and independent. All signs in it are considered as equal. Task of factor analysis: finding a minimum number of significant factors describing the phenomenon and the construction of a generalized index, the values \u200b\u200bof which are determined by the factories of objects.
However, it is necessary to take into account the scale of the Russian Federation. The diversity of territorial entities requires an assessment of Russia's investment attractiveness not in general, but in the context of the subjects of the federation this will obtain the real characteristic of the investment climate. Investors will be able to specifically define regions are favorable for investments, and the leadership of the regions will be able to identify weak points and take measures to improve investment attractiveness and stimulating investment activity.
The most significant regional competitive advantages or, on the contrary, weakness in competitive positions from the point of view of estimation of the prospects for attracting investors are revealed by positioning regions in the system of investment significant factors, i.e. factors forming the activity of investors in the regions. The composition of investment of significant factors is the same for all subjects of the federation and regularly refined on the basis of the use of logical and mathematical criteria due to the need for an adequate reflection of the peculiarities of the socio-economic development of Russia.
Three largely independent characteristics were adopted as components in the analysis of the investment attractiveness of the regions: investment potential, investment risk, investment legislation.
Definition of investment potential. Any region may be of interest to potential investors only if it has an investment attractiveness for them. Investment attractiveness is determined by the optimal combination of economic, political, social, financial, organizational, legal factors. These factors in aggregate motivate investors to invest in the real sector of the economy for the reproduction of fixed assets. Investment potential (investment capacity of the territory) is formed as the sum of objective prerequisites for investment, depending on both from the availability and diversity of areas and the object of investment, gas and from their economic "health." The potential of the countries or region is based on the characteristics of the quantitative, taking into account the main macroeconomic indicators, consumer demand of the population, the saturation of the territory of production factors (natural resources, labor, basic funds, infrastructure, etc.) in and others. Investment potential of the region in accordance with The methodical of the "Expert" magazine consists of seven private: 1) resource-commodity (weighted average availability of the balance sheets of the main types of natural resources) of the potential; 2) production (cumulative result of economic activity of the population); 3) consumer account (cumulative purchasing power of the population); 4) infrastructure (economic and geographical position and its infrastructure security; 5) intellectual (educational level of the population); in 6) institutional (degree of development of leading institutions of market economies); 7) innovative (the level of implementation of scientific and technological progress).
In 2014, the National Rating Agency (NRA), 80 out of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation were included in the national rating agency (NRA). Indicators of the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous districts were taken into account when issuing a rating assessment of the Tyumen region; An indicator of Nenets AO is included in the assessment of the Arkhangelsk region. The Republic of Crimea and Goro Sevastopol included in the Russian Federation in March 2014, not evaluated in the ranking due to the lack of a sufficient number of comparable statistical data.
When drawing up the rating, the statistics of Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and other departments for 2013 were used with the accounting of events and trends in 2014. The rating indicates the maintenance of high differentiation of the regions of Russia in terms of investment attractiveness, two key growth drivers of the investment attractiveness of the regions are highlighted. The first - the basic advantages of the region are rich reserves of natural resources, metropolitan status, high population, favorable geographic position. The second is the active activities of the regional authorities, but the creation of a favorable investment climate. The maximum volumes of private investment enroll in the regions with a combination of these advantages. For example, the Republic of Tatarstan is attractive to investments in both the economy sector and high-tech industries (due to the developed innovation infrastructure and a favorable business climate).
Table 133.
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attractive |
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Leningrad and Moscow region. For a number of indicators of economic and investment activity, the cities of federal significance are exceeded, including at the rate of housing entry, the volume of investment in the construction industry Sakhalin and Tyumen regions. The key factor in investment attractiveness is oil and gas resources. The decline in oil prices creates certain risks for regions that are practically in full dependency on the fuel and energy complex (TEK). These risks were reflected in reducing the rating positions of the Sakhalin region, which was moving around the year from the ICI group to the IC2 group. Republic of Tatarstan. Conducts a policies for diversifying the regional economy (the operation of natural resources + much attention to creating a favorable investment climate, attracting foreign investors). Krasnodar region, Samara and Belgorod region. Improved their rating positions due to positive dynamics for a number of indicators taken into account in the ranking |
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Nizhny Novgorod Region, Republic of Bashkortostan, Komi Republic. In each region there are high accumulated industrial potential and good opportunities for new investment investments. Kaliningrad, Kaluga, Magadan, Sverdlovsk and Tomsk regions, Khabarovsk region. The high positions of the Kaliningrad and Kaluga regions are predetermined by the beneficial geographical position, the quality of the investment climate of regions, which causes the confidence of Russian and foreign investors. Tomsk region is a unique example of the harmonious development of fuel and energy and innovative sectors of the economy. Sverdlovsk region - the leader but absolute volumes of attracted foreign investment, has a developed industrial complex. Magadan region and Khabarovsk Territory have opportunities to attract large investors from Asian countries, before ESG from China |
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1C4.1C5 and 1C6- "Middle" in the level of investment attractiveness - 42 regions |
IC4 - Voronezh, Lipetsk region, etc. IC5 - Kurskaya, Smolenskaya, Tambov, Tula, Yaroslavskaya, etc. IC6 - Kostroma, Ryazan, Tverskaya, etc. There is an active competitive struggle for attracting investors, factors that go beyond the framework of the standard requirements for the investment climate of the regions are of great importance. Among the most sought-after investors of bonuses, special economic zones, prepared investment platforms and personal role of the governor as a curator Investment projects and guarantors of investment protection |
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attractive |
Characteristics of regions - subjects of the Russian Federation |
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IC7 and IC8 - the first and second levels of the category "Moderate Investment Attraction" - in the regions |
Regions are located below the average Russian level in most indicators included in the NRA methodology (Bryansk, Oryol region, etc.). The optimal path of development of such regions is the introduction of best practices in the field of investment climate successfully tested in advanced regions. For example, all 15 sections of the regional investment standard are already introduced in the Pskov region, the special economic zones of industrial and industrial type has been created, a qualitative regulatory framework is formed, regulating investment processes. In the future, these measures should have a positive effect on macroeconomic indicators and the total level of investment attractiveness. |
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IC9 - moderate investment attractiveness - in a third level - 8 regions |
Five republics of the North Caucasus Federal District (Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Republic of North Ossetia - Alania), Republic of Altai, Kalmykia and Tyva Low investment activity is a consequence of the structural socio-economic problems of a long-term nature. The economic development of these regions actually defined not from private investment, but from financial support from the parties from the Federal Center (the proportion of own tax and non-tax revenues of such regions does not exceed 50%). But in the conditions of unfavorable economic situation, the possibilities for budget support for depressive regions are reduced, which increases the risks associated with the further development of these subjects of the Russian Federation |
Characteristics of investment risk. Investment risk is the danger of the loss of investment, non-receipt of them complete returns, impairment of investments. It shows why not (or should) in invest in this enterprise, industry, region, country. In contrast to investment potential, many of the rules of the game in the investment market may change overnight. Therefore, the risk, in essence, the characteristic is high quality. The degree of investment risk by a political, social, economic, environmental, criminal situation. The following types of risk are evaluated for analysis according to the method of the expert magazine: Economic (trends in the economic development of the region); political (polarization of political sympathies of the population based on the results of the last parliamentary elections); Social (social tension level); ecological (level of environmental pollution, including radiation); Criminal (crime levels in the region, taking into account the severity of crimes).
Investment legislation. In interstate comparison, legislation is the most important component of investment risk. Legislation not only affects the degree of risk, but also regulates the possibilities of investing in TS or other spheres or industries, determines the procedure for the use of individual factors of production-store investment potential of the region. All existing legislative acts can be divided into federal and regional investment legislation shall be divided into direct, directly regulating investment activities, and indirectly related to the conditions for the functioning of the fields of activity. Investor is interested in how profitable the investment may be and how risky it is. Risk and potential are inextricably linked. According to the methodology proposed by the "Expert" magazine, all Russian regions are considered in the coordinates "Risk - Potential". The following gradations are given (Table 13.4).
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Potential - RISK |
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Maximum features at minimal risk. This is the Russian elite |
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High potential - moderate risk |
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High Potential - High Risk |
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Medium potential - minimal risk |
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Medium potential - moderate risk |
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Medium potential - high risk |
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Low potential - minimal risk |
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Medium potential - moderate risk. The most popular combination. The numerous group of "middle peasants". Two subgroups are highlighted in it: SV1 and SV2 |
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Reduced potential - moderate risk |
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Minor potential - moderate risk |
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Reduced Potential - High Risk |
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Minor potential - high risk |
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Low potential - extreme risk |
According to the results of a generalized assessment, the regions of the Russian Federation are assigned a rating. As part of the "Expert RA" rating, forms an informative picture of the risk potential of the regions of Russia. It allows you to evaluate, on the one hand, the scale of the business to which the region is ready; On the other hand, the risky is risky to develop this business.
Along with these concepts for analysis, assessment and implementation of investment policies, the term "investment climate" is used. Investment climate - economic, political, financial conditions affecting the influx of domestic and external investment in the country's economy. A favorable climate is characterized by political sustainability, the presence of a legislative base, moderate taxes, benefits provided to investors. The factors affecting the PA investment climate are divided by the possibility of influencing them from society to objective (natural-climatic conditions, equipment with energy resources, geographic location, demographic situation, etc.) B and subjective (related to the management of people's activities).
An indicator system is used to evaluate the investment climate. However, there are few general indicators for the formation of the investment climate - in each region you can find many factors that define true "weather" in the conditions of a given investment climate. Work on the formation of the investment climate is advisable to hold on a comprehensive well-thought-out program, characterizing the conditions and medium of capital investment, the system of motivation and guarantees. The program should provide and take into account such criteria:
To identify the factors that determine the investment attractiveness of the economic system, it is advisable to deepen the analysis by expanding the structure of investment potential and risk in the incision of the components: macroeconomic, political, legislative resource, commodity, industrial, consumer, infrastructure, innovative, investment, financial, intellectual labor, social, social, financial, intellectual labor, social, Environmental.
The composition of the factors, the methods of measurement and variation in the integral indicator of the investment attractiveness of the regions are determined in accordance with the developed methodological recommendations for assessing the investment attractiveness of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation approved by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade on May 11, 2001, as well as methodological recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of investment attractiveness Subjects of the Russian Federation, developed in 2005
Management of investment attractiveness of the economy of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is primarily the management of the trends of operation and development. The Enforcement of the Russian Federation will be attractive for the investor only when it will change the key properties and the main results of the work of the real sector of the economy will increase the reliability, responsibility and level of confidence in the management system, and it will also achieve that the distribution of these properties on the real sector object and other fields will become Sustainable trend.
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Federal Agency for Education
Mary State Technical University
Department of Economics and Finance
abstract
under the discipline "Regional Economics" on the topic:
"Investment attractiveness of the regions"
Performed: group student
FC-41 EF Lastochka E.P.
Checked: k.e.n, associate professor
economy and Finance
Kostromin V. E.
yoshkar-Ola
Introduction ..............................................................................................3
The concept of investment attractiveness of the region ........................ .5
Investment potential of regions ............................................. 6
Evaluation of the investment risk of Russian regions ........................ 11
Investment climate of regions of Russia ....................................... 14
Methods of increasing the investment attractiveness of the region ......... 18
Marketing of the regions as a factor of increasing investment attractiveness ..................................................................................................... 20
Conclusion .......................................................................................... 25.
List of references ......................................................................................... .. ... .27
Introduction
One of the conditions for the stable development of the regions is the intensification of investment activities aimed at attracting financial and material resources of domestic and foreign investors, as well as rational use in the most priority sectors of the economy. The volume of investment involved in the economy is one of the criteria for the effectiveness of its functioning. At the same time, there is a huge gap between the achieved level of investment in the economy of Russian regions and the level necessary to ensure their sustainable development.
The creation of the most favorable conditions for the start and development of business and investment, increasing the competitiveness of the region is one of the main tasks of regional economic policy.
Many macroeconomic indicators can be listed, characterizing the efficiency of the regional economy:
internal regional product
foreign trade turnover,
capital investment levels
the volume of industrial production per capita,
standards of living,
unemployment rate,
consumer price level,
the average monthly salary of the population,
average housing for the population of the region.
When evaluating the regional economy, an integrated approach should be applied. All of the above factors are interrelated and have a direct or indirect influence on each other, but they are all statistical, and separately taken do not give a comprehensive assessment of the economic condition of the region.
When the efficiency of the regional economy, the indicator of investment attractiveness should be especially highlighted.
A positive change in the above indicators, in particular, and positive trends in the development of the regional economy as a whole, directly depend on the level of investment attractiveness of the region. It is the degree of investment attractiveness that is a determining condition for active investment activities, and, consequently, the effective socio-economic development of the regional economy.
Objective: Study of investment potential and investment risk of regions of Russia.
1. The effect of the investment attractiveness of the region.
The investment attractiveness of the regions is the integral characteristics of individual regions of the country from the standpoint of the investment climate, the level of development of investment infrastructure, the possibilities of attracting investment resources and other factors that significantly affect the formation of investment and investment risks. The investment attractiveness of the region is objective prerequisites for investment and is quantitatively expressed in the amount of capital investments that can be involved in the region on the basis of the investment potential inherent in it and the level of non-commercial investment risks. The level of investment attractiveness acts as an integral indicator summing up the multidirectional impact of indicators of investment potential and investment risk. In turn, investment potential and risk is an aggregated representation of a whole set of factors. The presence of regional investment risks indicate the incomplete use of the investment potential of the territory.
The investment potential consists in the form of the sum of objective prerequisites for investments, depending on both the diversity of spheres and investment facilities and their economic "health." Investment potential includes eight private potentials:
1) resource-raw material (weighted availability by balance reserves of the main types of natural resources);
2) production (cumulative result of the economic activity of the population in the region);
3) consumer (cumulative purchasing power of the population);
4) infrastructure (economic and geographical location of the region and its infrastructure security);
5) labor (labor resources and their educational level);
6) institutional (degree of development of leading institutions of the market economy);
7) financial (tax base and profitability of enterprises of the region);
8) innovative (the level of implementation of scientific and technological progress).
The level of investment risk shows the likelihood of loss of investment and income from them and is calculated as the weighted average amount of the following risk species:
economic (trends in the economic development of the region);
financial (degree of balance of the regional budget and finance of enterprises);
political (distribution of political sympathies of the population based on the results of the last parliamentary elections, the authority of local authorities);
social (social tension);
environmental (level of environmental pollution, including radiation);
criminal (crime rate in the region, taking into account the severity of crimes);
legislative (legal conditions of investment in certain spheres and industries, the procedure for the use of individual production factors). When calculating this risk, both federal and regional laws and regulations are taken into account, as well as documents directly regulating investment activities or affecting it indirectly.
Evaluation of the investment attractiveness of the region includes two main points:
1. Investment attractiveness of the region itself. At this stage, an existing regulatory and legislative base is analyzed, legal aspects, a political situation, the degree of protection of investors' rights, the level of taxation, etc.
2. Investment attractiveness of specific investment objects. At this stage, the economic condition of industries, enterprises and other business entities is analyzed.
Analysis and assessment of the degree of favorableness of the investment attractiveness of the regions as one of the components of the investment climate in the country represents a huge scientific and practical interest.
2. Investment potential of regions.
In recent years, there has been a significant shift in investment potential from the eastern regions, despite the wealth of resources into the European part of Russia. This creates a serious threat to the promising development of the eastern regions.
In the period between crises, the investment potential shifted to the West to the areas of developed agriculture and mainly manufacturing industry creating high added value. Three Western districts - the central, northwest and south - increased their total share in the potential from 53 to 56%, while mainly the raw materials - Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern - reduced it from 29.6 to 27.1% ( Picture 1). In addition, the eastern regions compared to Western on average have a higher and growing level of investment risk, even in the West and there is a fairly highly high Southern Federal District.
Fig. 1. Investment Profile of Russia 1998/99-2008 / 09.
The situation of the possible loss of Eastern regions aggravates the identified tendency to reduce investment potential and investment risk growth in the Volga Federal District, which plays a special cementing role in ensuring the territorial integrity of Russia. Especially disturbing the processes occurring in the nodal region of the Volga Federal District - the Samara region, which are reflected in the progressive reduction of its investment attractiveness.
Insufficient investment volumes over the past decade of uncruiscuous development did not allow to rebuild the economy, make it modern and sustainable crisis. More than a quarter of the total and almost half of foreign direct investment were sent to the regions of the Central Federal District (Figure 2). On the contrary, despite the high proportion of foreign direct investment in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (mainly in the Sakhalin region), according to the total volume of accumulated investments in fixed assets, this district ranks recently in Russia.
Fig. 2. The share of federal districts in the total investment in fixed capital and the scope of foreign direct investment for the period 1999-2008.
The preservation of the existing distribution of investment attractiveness will attract funds only into separate territories that are distinguished by a stable investment climate. The greatest chances in the modernization process are obtained by the North-West, Central and South, as well as the Volga zones.
On the contrary, most regions, especially in the east of the country, seem to be overboard modernization. In the future, it threatens a gradual transition from linear-noded to the focal principle of the territorial development of productive forces in a large part of Russia. The estimated relocation from monogorodov will only aggravate the loss of the mastered territory. Under these conditions, a special investment policy of the advanced development of the Eastern and Northern regions is necessary, providing for the preservation of existing and creating new infrastructure corridors, as well as points and priority areas. At the same time, measures to improve the investment attractiveness adopted by the regional authorities should be part of future regional modernization programs.
The investment attractiveness of the region is formed due to the combination of objective social, economic and natural resources, opportunities and restrictions. In other words, the more convenient and more profitable to invest in this territory, the higher its attractiveness for the business. So the influx of capital into the territory, which is implemented through the business activity of the business.
In practice, the assessment of the investment attractiveness of the region is carried out through the estimate of the two indicators:
Investment potential shows the range of possibilities that the entrepreneur has in this territory. On the other hand, investment risk illustrates the scale of the problems that may arise in the investor in the region.
The investment potential of the territory is made up of the following private potentials:
The level of investment risk in the region is defined as an integral assessment of individual risks. Among them are the economic, social, financial, criminal, managerial and environmental risks.
Naturally, the larger the regions of business opportunities, the higher its level of attractiveness for investors. Conversely - a high level of risk reasonably repels entrepreneurs and reduces the investment attractiveness of the territory.
The investment attractiveness of any territorial education is determined by the set of information on the nature of investment activities in the region. The tool for this information is the rating of the investment attractiveness of the regions. It is annually drawn up by the company "Expert.ru" and published in general access.
According to the results of the statistical data assessment, each region receives its investment attractive rating. It is calculated as an index characterizing the ratio between the levels of investment potential and the investment risk of the territory. There are 13 rating categories.
Territories with maximum investment potential and minimum risk levels are assigned the highest rating of 1A. Regions that have low potential and trace an extreme risk for investors, the minimum 3D rating is obtained.
In December 2016, the ranking 1a was assigned to St. Petersburg, the Moscow Region and the Krasnodar Territory. Moscow and the Sverdlovsk region received a rating of 1B, while the rating of Moscow decreased compared with last year. Belgorod region, the Republic of Tatarstan and the Nizhny Novgorod region are marked by Rating 2A, while the rating of the Nizhny Novgorod region is increased compared with 2015. Also in the top ten most attractive territories for investors include the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Republic of Bashkortostan with a 2B rating. The minimum 3D rating received Tyva and Ingushetia. Among the least promising territories, the Chukotka Autonomous District, Magadan Region, Chechnya, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, North Ossetia and Kamchatka Territory should also be called.
Depending on the level of investment attractiveness, several types of territories are distinguished: locomotives, growth poles, support regions, growth points, problem areas and regions with uncertain prospects.
The Municipal and Regional Administration is engaged in the development of investment policy on the micro level. Here, the prospects for the development of territories are evaluated, projects and target programs are formed. At the macroevna, federal authorities determine the amount of budget financing of the represented projects, develop their own measures to support promising territories and industries.
Topic 4. Regional Investment Strategies
Investment attractiveness of the regions
Investment attractiveness of the region- This is a combination of factors determining the inflow of investment in the region or outflow of capital.
The investment attractiveness (climate) of the region is determined by investment potential and investment risk.
Investment potential of the region- these are the potential of the region todevelopment of the economy.
Investment potential takes into account the readiness of the region to receive investments with relevant guarantees of capital safety and profit of investors. It includes the following components - private potentials:
· Resource-raw material (weighted availability by balance reserves of the main types of natural resources);
· Labor (labor resources and their educational level);
· Production (gross regional product);
· Innovative (level of development of fundamental, university and applied science with emphasis on the implementation of its results in the region);
· Institutional (degree of development of the institutions of a market economy);
· Infrastructure (economic and geographical location of the region and its infrastructure security);
· Financial (tax base and profitability of the region's enterprises);
· Consumer (cumulative purchasing power of the population of the region).
Investment risk- This is the probability (possibility) of capital loss.
Integral investment risk is determined by economic, financial, political, social, environmental, criminal and legislative risks.
Integral risk or simply investment risk are calculated on the components:
Economic risk (trends in the economic development of the region);
Financial risk (degree of balance of the regional budget and finance of the enterprise);
Political risk (distribution of political sympathies of the population based on the results of the last parliamentary elections, the authority of local authorities);
Social risk (social tension level);
Environmental risk (environmental pollution, including radiation);
Criminal risk (crime rate in the region, taking into account the severity of crimes);
Legislative risk (legal conditions of investment in certain spheres or industries, the procedure for the use of individual production factors). When calculating this risk, a totality of federal and regional laws and regulations on investments is used.
Integral potential and risk indicators are calculated as a weighted amount of private potential and private risks.
Potential region- This is the proportion of the region in the total potential of Russia.
The relative level of risk of the region is determined in relation to averaged Russian risk. Inaccuracies in the integral potential analysis and integral risk of regions on this technique are mainly due to the determination of weights (fractions) of the components of potential and risk.
The authors of the methodology are the greatest weight asked by consumer, labor, production potentials, legislative, political and economic risks, the least weight - natural resource, financial and institutional potentials, environmental risk.
Investors are of particular importance to employ labor and consumer potentials (they have shown polls), that is, they are interested in primarily the quality of local labor. andthe possibility of expanding the production and sales of goods.
From regional risks, investors are afraid of the most legislative and political risks interconnected.
Components of the investment attractiveness of the regions
Currently, the theory of competitive advantages of the region has been the leading theory of development based in practice. The latter must maximize its natural, industrial, intellectual, technological or other advantages in the preparation and implementation of investment strategy and development programs. It is the theory of competitive advantages that underlies the development of strategies, concepts and programs for the development of regions of the Russian Federation.
Leading position in the Russian economy occupy donor regions. Moscow occupies the first place for economic potential. The main competitive advantage of the capital of the country is the status of its financial center. The banks of Moscow belong to more than 80% of the assets of the entire banking system of the country, about 90% of securities are drawn on Moscow stock exchanges.
Regions can be divided into groups according to the following indicators and features:
On investment attractiveness;
On investment potential;
On investment integral risk;
On private investment potentials;
On private investment risks;
On total investment and per capita investment;
In the magnitude of the VRP region and in its size per capita;
In terms of economic development (growth rates of GRP, investment, incomes of the population, etc.);
By the type of economy (raw material, industrial, post-industrial);
In terms of human development and human capital;
At the ratio of average wages and subsistence minimum;
On the provision of the region's budget income per capita;
According to the trade potential, as well as other indicators.
Table 4.2.1 shows the gross regional product per capita, as well as the share of mechanical engineering and the cumulative share of commodity industries, metallurgy and electric power industry in the structure of the industry of economically strong and major and backward regions of the Russian Federation for 2002.
The number of economically strong regions includes:
Financial, Economic, Scientific, Educational and Cultural Center of the country - Moscow;
Northern capital - developed (at the level of Russia) in all respects of St. Petersburg, with a high proportion of engineering and high technology enterprises, with developed science, education, high culture;
Samara region - with a diversified and competitive industry (mechanical engineering and metalworking - 58.9%, chemical and petrochemical industry. - 10.8%, electric power industry - 7.5%);
Tatarstan, which has a developed and diversified industry;
Regions with an increased share of fuel and metallurgical and energy enterprises.
The average for the regions of the regions (17000-8000 rubles per capita) includes regions with a variety of economy protections: from the Lipetsk region, where the share of the metallurgical industry is 60%, to the Voronezh region - with its diverse, but mostly inefficient industries with high value added. From the Kemerovo region, the basis of the economy of which constitutes metallurgical production and the coal industry, to the Novosibirsk and Nizhny Novgorod regions - with high groups of engineering enterprises, highly developed systems of education and science.
If you choose the Voronezh region as a reference subject of the Russian Federation with an average level of economic development, then the perception of the population in the donor regions will be 6.5-2 times higher than in this area (subsidia).
The poorest republics (according to official data) includes mainly North Caucasian and other outskirts of the National Republic. At the same time, almost every of these republics has expensive football teams in the highest or first leagues of the Russian Championship.
For a comparative assessment of the standard of living of the population of different countries, GDP or GRP per capita is used, calculated on purchasing power parity.
GDP per capita in international currency (usually in US dollars) is defined as the ratio of the country's GDP value to the number of population.
VRP in the Tyumen region is about the same as GDP in Australia, Japan, the Netherlands. GRP Moscow is comparable to Greece and Portugal GDP. The remaining regions are significantly inferior in this indicator.
In the long term should have an advantage in competition for the influx of capital of regions with a significant share of the manufacturing industry. However, while the leading position occupy regions with commodity economies due to the stagnation of the manufacturing and high-tech industry.
The gradation of regions by the type of economy is conditional. So, for example, Tyumen region, the main income receives from the fuel industry enterprises. At the same time, an industrial estimate of the economy takes place in the city of Tyumen, under which production is understood with a fairly high value added.
To regions with commodity economies, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Republic of Komi, Tyumen region and some others can be conditionally attributed to the Republic of Komi, the Economics of these regions is determined by world community prices. VRP in these regions is the highest in the country.
To regions with mixed economies (high shares of both commodities and mechanical engineering) include most of the southern regions and the edges of the Urals, Siberia and the Far East. This includes Sverdlovskaya, Perm, Chelyabinsk Region, Udmurt Republic, Bashkortostan, Orenburg, Omsk Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Tomsk, Kemerovo Region, Altai Territory, Irkutsk Region, Primorsky, Khabarovsk Territory, and others. The economy of some of these regions is fairly stable and diversified. VRP is close in magnitude to leading regions (Sverdlovsk, Kemerovo region, Bashkortostan, etc.). They are periodically or constantly included in the number of donor regions.
Regions with industrial economies include subjects of the Federation: Central, Central Chernozem, North, Volga-Vyatsky, Ural, Volga, Rostov region.
The economy of the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories is oriented due to the favorable natural conditions on agricultural production. These are their undoubted competitive advantages in comparison with other regions.
The foci of the growth of the post-industrial economy can be attributed to Moscow with neighboring Moscow region with its fundamental and applied science, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Tomsk and some other major cities with academic centers and developed systems of science and education. It was these regions and cities that were presented to the Government of the Russian Federation large and promising projects and technoparks and special economic zones (SEZ) are created in them.
Innovative potential, within the framework of the used methodology, was estimated at the level of the development of fundamental, university and applied sciences, taking into account the implementation of their results in the region. In general, he correlates with the investment potential of the regions.
Political risks significantly affect the investment attractiveness of the region. They depend: from political stability; stability of local legislation; views and mentality of his elite; political sympathies and mentality of the population; authoritative of regional power; relations between the authorities of the region and the largest municipalities of the region, between the region and the federal center.
The methodology used by the Expert Agency to assess the rating of political risk is based on the stability indicator in the region of the political situation, the stability of local laws and rules for business. Therefore, high rank have republics and national autonomous districts often with authoritarian regimes of power. At the same time, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation with high levels and high quality CC, high innovative potential, high VRP per capita occupy low places (Moscow - 35, Samara Region - 76, St. Petersburg - 80). A similar methodology for assessing political risk takes into account the role of political preferences of the governors and mayors of these regions, which significantly and subjectively affect the investment process. In the overall investment risk ranking, the political risk for strong regions is compensated for by other components of integral risk.
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In connection with crisis phenomena in the global economy, the problem of creating an effective investment management system at different levels of the economy is becoming increasingly relevant. Since the effectiveness of investment activity is most determined by the level of investment attractiveness implemented within the framework of the investment strategy, the study of the nature of the concept investment attractiveness is of particular importance.
In economic literature there is no unambiguous interpretation of the concept of "investment attractiveness". We believe that investment attractiveness is advisable to consider at the state, regional level, at the level of industries (subcompleks), organizations.
V. Dal interprets attractiveness as "temptation". E.V. Savenkova believes that the concept of "investment attractiveness" is identical to the concept of "investment entrepreneurship". In her opinion, the higher the effectiveness of the investment, the higher the level of investment attractiveness.
This position is controversial, since the effect of attached tools may not be manifested immediately, nevertheless, the region of the region may be attractive for potential investors.
A.S. Ponya believes that ". Investment attractiveness of the country, region, etc. is a system or a combination of various objective signs, funds, possibilities that determine the potential platform for investment in the country, region, industry. We divide this point of view.
E.V. VOLOLOGY Under investment attractiveness understands "... a set of natural-geographical, socio-economic, political and other factors forming an investor's presentation on the feasibility and effectiveness of investing in the objects in the region."
However, a number of listed factors can be subjective and inaccurate in their assessment, which can lead to a distorted or incomplete representation of the investor on the subject of investment.
A.G. Tretyakov defines the investment attractiveness of the region as "... a system or a combination of various objective signs, funds, opportunities that determine the potential operating demand for investment in this region."
Investment attractiveness can exist on micro - and macro levels. At the macro level, it depends on such factors as political stability; The main macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of the country's economy; the presence and degree of perfection of regulatory acts in the field of investment activities; The degree of perfection of the tax system; The degree of investment risk.
Depending on the temporary horizon of analysis, management and forecasting, current and promising investment attractiveness can be allocated. The main methodological provisions of their measurement are uniform.
Investment attractiveness of the region (IPR) is an integral characteristic from the position of investment climate, the level of infrastructure development, the possibility of attracting investment resources and other factors that significantly affect the formation of income from investment and investment risks.
The above-mentioned A. Ponyin considers investment attractiveness as an independent variable that determines the level of dependent variable - investment activity - and it believes that the investment attractiveness of the region is implemented in the form of investment activity, and investment activity, in turn - "... is the real development of investment activities in The form of investments in fixed capital. "
At the micro level, the investment attractiveness of the region depends:
On the degree of industrial development of the region;
geographical location and climatic resources;
system benefits for investors in the region;
level of development of the legislative base of investment activities, etc.
Under the investment attractiveness of the organization means a generalized characteristic in terms of prospects, benefits, efficiency and minimizing the risk of investment investment in its development due to own funds and means of other investors. The investment attractiveness of the organization characterize such factors as:
The factors that affect investment attractiveness are usually divided by the possibility of affecting them from society:
On objects - these are the security of raw materials, climatic conditions and so on;
subjective associated with managerial activities of people, specific firms, skillful management of the regional economy.
There are different points of view regarding the components of investment attractiveness elements. So, E.V. Savenkova believes that it is. "Placement ... Special factors and resources." According to I.V. Kovaleva, the investment attractiveness of the industry (subcomplex) is formed by the level of investment potential and investment risks, is being implemented in the form of the investment activity of the industry in the structure of the Apk region.
In turn, investment activity is the development of investment activities in the form of investments. The economic category "Investment potential" should express the economic essence of investment potential as a theoretical generalization of economic phenomena associated with the implementation of the target functions of accumulated investment resources.
Investment potential is a qualitative characteristic that takes into account the indicators of objective prerequisites for investment and depends on the level of economic development of the territory. According to S.K. Ryaskova, investment potential is "... a set of investment resources that make up the part of the accumulated capital, which is presented in the investment market in the form of potential demand."
A.G. Tretyakov examines the investment potential as a set of investment resources that make up the part of the accumulated capital, which is presented in the investment market in the form of potential investment demand capable and having the opportunity to turn into real investment demand, ensuring the satisfaction of the needs of capital reproduction. "
In our opinion, in understanding the potential, it is advisable to invest a combination of available funds, opportunities in any field.
F.S. The Tumusov was given the following definition: Investment potential is a combination of potential investment resources that make up the part of the accumulated capital, which is presented in the investment market in the form of potential investment demand, capable of and having the opportunity to turn into real investment demand, ensuring the satisfaction of material, financial and intellectual needs reproduction of capital.
From the point of view of A. M. Margolina and A.Ya. Fastryakova, the investment potential is not a simple, but in a certain way an ordered set of investment resources, allowing to achieve the effect of synergies (derived from the Greek "Synergy" and means cooperation, community) and to obtain the effect of the interaction of various factors exceeding the effect of the effects on the object in question Each factor individually when used.
Complementing its argument, these authors, in particular, drew attention to the feasibility of expanding the aggregate of material, financial and intellectual resources, traditionally taken into account in the formation of investment potential, including such types of resources as natural and informational.
We believe that investment potential must take into account the macroeconomic characteristics, the saturation of the territory of production factors, consumer demand of the population and develop from eight private potentials:
investment Attraction Region Tatarstan
Social importance of investment activity is determined by its content (investment structure), orientation, and how much it meets the objective needs of the economy in the strategic perspective, including in the implementation of priority national projects. The relationship of investment attractiveness and investment activity is the nature of correlation dependence: investment attractiveness is a generalizing factor notification, investment activity - dependent in it with an effective basis.
The combination of investment attractiveness and activity is its investment climate. In turn, the change in the investment climate in the dynamics is an investment process and affects the level of investment policy.
So, in the set of concepts that form the state of investment policy, the system-forming category is investment attractiveness, depending on private factorial signs - investment potential and sectoral investment risks. Understanding the essence of investment attractiveness will allow to determine the trends in the development of the economy in the context of the global crisis.
Thus, taking into account domestic and foreign approaches to understanding and evaluating the IPR, it should be noted that the differences are not for a fundamental nature. Under IPR, it is necessary to understand the combination of natural-geographical, socio-economic, political, legal and other factors forming an investor's presentation on the feasibility and effectiveness of investing in objects in the region, as well as the level of investment risks. At the same time, the criteria for evaluating foreign estimates (S & P, Moody "S, Fitch) are defining for a foreign investor.
Investment potential is a set of factors of production and field factors available in the region. This characteristic is quantitative, taking into account the main macroeconomic indicators, the saturation of the territory of production factors (natural resources, workforce, basic funds, infrastructure, etc.), consumer demand of the population. Its calculation is based on absolute statistical indicators.
The components of the IPR are investment potential and investment risk.
