Source: www.rosteplo.ru
"At present, there are a large number of issues in the field of heat supply, the solution of which must be ensured at the legislative level ...", noted the first deputy head of the United Russia faction, Yuri Lipatov.
The State Duma hosted a meeting of the working group on the development and adoption of the "Strategy for the development of heat supply and cogeneration in the Russian Federation for the period until 2020".
Opening the meeting, the first deputy head of the United Russia faction, Yuri Lipatov, emphasized: “Currently, there are a large number of issues in the field of heat supply, the solution of which must be ensured at the legislative level. One of the main problems requiring an urgent solution is the issue of the CHPP operation in modern market conditions. Currently, the operation of combined heat and power plants, which produce two products per unit of fuel: heat and electricity, is not regulated between the laws "On Electricity" and "On Heat Supply". As a result, the efficiency of the CHP plant is lost. In this regard, the Government needs to coordinate actions and establish interaction between the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Construction, Housing and Communal Services of the Russian Federation to resolve this long-overdue issue. "
Expressing his opinion in support of the approaches of the Strategy, Deputy Director of the Department of State Regulation of Tariffs for Infrastructure Reforms and Energy Efficiency of the Ministry of Economic Development Dmitry Vakhrukov drew attention to the need for broader disclosure in the Strategy for solving problems of municipal heat supply.
Deputy Chairman of the Board of NP "Market Council" Vladimir Shkatov noted that Deputy Prime Minister A.V. Dvorkovich in the Ministry of Energy of Russia returned for revision the draft "Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2035" due to the absence, according to the Deputy Prime Minister, of clear prospects for the development of the energy sector over a 5-year horizon.
According to V. Shkatov, linking all the programs for the development of energy systems is a task for the future, and now it is necessary to develop and adopt Strategies for individual industries and it is very correct that the draft Strategy for the development of heat supply and cogeneration in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 it is proposed to link the operation of the electric and thermal energy markets through solving the CHP problem.
Summing up the meeting, Yu.A. Lipatov noted that the problems of heat supply, which always appear at the junction of the interaction of departments, the Government of the Russian Federation is not doing enough to coordinate their activities. In these conditions, the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and the largest party faction in the State Duma are forced to draw the attention of the heads of federal executive bodies and the Government of the Russian Federation to this.
The strategic goals for the development of heat supply are:
The results of the implementation of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020 in the field of heat supply development should be considered unsatisfactory. Over the past period, the situation in this area has worsened despite the adoption of a number of decisions, which were not sufficiently supported by the necessary organizational measures, material and technical base and financial resources.
Over the past period, the indicators of wear and tear of fixed assets of heat supply increased (up to 65 - 70 percent), the utilization rate of the installed heat capacity of power plants decreased to a value not exceeding 50 percent, the length of heating networks decreased by 7 percent (more than 13.5 thousand km) , losses in heating networks increased (from 14 to 20 percent), as well as a significant increase in electricity consumption for pumping heat carrier (up to 40 kWh / Gcal).
The main problems in this area include:
To achieve the strategic development goals of the industry, it is necessary to solve the following main tasks:
The prospective structure, as well as the volumes of production and consumption of heat energy for the period under consideration, are maximally focused on meeting the needs of the Russian economy and take into account the already begun deurbanization of urban settlements, including the removal of industrial production outside the urban development and the active development of individual low-rise construction, the share of which is planned at 52 - 55 percent of the total housing stock put into operation. Low-rise buildings, as a rule, will be provided with individual heat generators, and multi-story buildings - with centralized (partially decentralized) sources. The main increase in heat production in district heating systems will be provided by thermal power plants, the share of which in the total heat production in district heating systems will increase from 44 percent to 49-50 percent by the end of the third stage of the implementation of this Strategy. In addition, the use of heat recovery plants and especially renewable heat sources based on geothermal, solar energy and biomass will increase. As a result, the share of boiler houses in heat production in district heating systems will decrease from 49 percent to 40 percent by the end of the third stage of the implementation of this Strategy.
Nuclear power plants with modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors for the production of heat of industrial potential, the production of hydrogen, synthetic liquid fuel and others will also find their application in heat supply.
Energy saving in heat supply will be carried out in the following main areas:
As a result, at least a twofold decrease in specific heat losses will be achieved (from 19 percent to 8-10 percent by the end of the third stage of the implementation of this Strategy), which will ensure fuel savings of at least 40 million tons of fuel equivalent by 2030.
The projected development of heat supply will require the implementation of a number of measures such as the formation and improvement of a competitive heat market, support for the creation of advanced Russian equipment for the heat supply system, improvement of the management of these systems, and support from the state and regional authorities to form the necessary investments in the heat supply sector.
At the first stage of the implementation of this Strategy, an increase in the standards for the provision of heat supply services will be ensured as a result of optimizing the structure of systems, the ratio of centralized and decentralized heat supply, increasing the reliability, safety, energy and economic efficiency of production, transportation and consumption of heat by modernizing fixed assets and heating networks, as well as providing consumers with metering and regulation systems.
During this period, it is necessary to develop and begin the consistent implementation of a set of program measures to radically improve heat supply, including:
At the second stage of the implementation of this Strategy, large-scale reconstruction and technical re-equipment of fixed assets will be carried out, including the economically justified replacement of heating networks and network equipment for district heating in those regions where it will be economically justified. Decentralized (individual) heat supply systems, including those using renewable heat sources, will be widely developed at a new technological level.
The heat energy market will be formed and the relationships between its participants will be streamlined, the processes of increasing the energy efficiency of heat supply and the introduction of innovative highly efficient technological schemes for its organization will be further developed.
At the third stage of the implementation of this Strategy, heat supply will reach high levels of energy, economic and environmental efficiency, a high level of thermal comfort of the population will be ensured, corresponding to the level of development of countries with similar natural and climatic conditions (Canada, Scandinavian countries). Further development of the industry will follow the path of expanded involvement of new non-hydrocarbon energy sources in heat production and the use of highly efficient automated technological schemes for organizing heat supply.
The degree of implementation of the main directions for the development of heat supply provided for by the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020
By Order No. 1234-r of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 "was approved. Prospects for the development of heat supply systems are reflected in p. Sem "Heat supply" section VI "Prospects for the development of the fuel and energy complex".
The text of the “Strategy” rightly notes the absence of a consolidated thermal balance of the country. This is partly because its creators did not provide any analysis or forecast of the dynamics of demand for thermal energy (TE) by sector of the economy. The forecast itself is compiled in a very aggregated form in the context of the production of fuel cells on centralized and decentralized sources. The latter include sources with a capacity of up to 20 Gcal / h.
The volume of production and consumption of fuel cells in 2000, including losses in the networks, is estimated at 2000 20 million Gcal. It was assumed that the production and consumption of TE would grow by 4% by 2005, by 9-13% by 2000 and 10, by 15-23% by 2000 and 15 and by 22-34% by 2000 and 20 ...
According to Russian statistics, the consumption of fuel cells in Russia in 2005 decreased by 4% from the level of 2000.
The unhurried growth of demand for fuel cells in the "Strategy", in principle, should have occurred due to a significant decrease in losses in thermal networks (TS): by 5-8% by 2005 - by 17-21% by 2000 and 10. - by 34-38% by Two thousand and fifteen and by 55-60% by Two thousand and 20. 22% by Two thousand 10, 30-41% by Two thousand fifteen and 45-62% by Two thousand 20.
According to Russian statistics, the useful consumption of TE in Russia in 2005 was 9% below the level of 2000.
The "Strategy" overestimates the losses in the vehicle in the amount of Four hundred and sixty million Gcal, or 23% of the consumption level.
According to Russian statistics, losses in the vehicle are estimated at 8.7% of the level of TE consumption (100-120 million Gcal in the last seven years). Losses at the level of 23% may be characteristic of the amount of losses in transmission and distribution networks serving small consumers. Given the fact that a fraction of small
of consumers receiving heat energy through distribution networks (population, service industry and small enterprises) is approximately 50%, the loss of fuel energy in thermal networks of general use can be estimated equal to 215-245 million Gcal, or about 15% of the heat energy produced at power plants and boiler rooms.
The "Strategy" assumed the conservation of a fraction of centralized sources in the structure of fuel energy production up to 2000 at the level of 70%, or its slow decrease from 72% in 2000 to 66% in 2000 and 20.
According to Russian statistics, a fraction of the centralized production of fuel cells (at sources with a capacity below 20 Gcal / h) decreased in 2000-2005. on 2%.
Summing up, it can be noted that the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2000 inaccurately outlined the initial state of the heat supply system and gave only a very generalized description of the main directions of development of heat supply, many of which turned out to be incorrect in the period up to 2006.
The current state of heat supply in Russia
Over 100 years of development, the Russian heat supply system has become the largest in the world. The country's heat supply system consists of approximately 50 thousand local heat supply systems served by Seventeen thousand heat supply companies (Table 1).
As part of the sources of thermal energy: Four hundred ninety seven CHPPs (of which two hundred 40 are four CHPPs of general use and Two hundred 50 three CHPPs of industrial companies) - Seven hundred and 5 boiler houses with a capacity of more than 100 Gcal / h - Two thousand eight hundred 40 seven boiler houses with a capacity of 20 to 100 Gcal / h - Fourteen thousand three hundred 50 eight boiler houses with a capacity from Three to 20 Gcal / h - 40 eight thousand 70 5 boiler houses with a capacity of up to Three Gcal / h, also more than Twelve million personal thermal installations. Heat from these sources is transmitted along a 176.5 thousand km TS in two-pipe calculation (this is 5.5 times more than in the USA - ed.), With a total surface area of about 100 eighty km2 for about 40 four million subscribers ... Centralized heat supply (DH) for heating needs provided 80% of the housing stock of the Russian Federation (91% in towns and 52% in rural areas), and hot water from DH systems - 63% of the population of Russia (79% in towns and 22% in rural areas) ...
Table 1. The main characteristics of the heat supply systems of the Russian Federation in two thousand and two thousand six years.
| Specifications | Units | 2000 year | 2006 year |
| Number of isolated heat supply systems | thous. | about 50 | |
| Number of heat supply companies | units | 21368 | 17183 |
| The number of subscribers of heat supply companies | million | about 44 | |
| Number of heat supply sources: | |||
| CHP for general use | units | 242 | 244 |
| CHP plants of industrial companies | units | 245 | 253 |
| Boiler houses, of which: - with a capacity of the least Three Gcal / h - with a capacity from Three to 20 Gcal / h | units | 67913 | 65985* |
| units | 47206 | 48075 | |
| units | 16721 | 14358 | |
| Personal heat generators | million | more than 12 | |
| Number of installed boilers in boiler houses | units | 192216 | 179023 |
| Boiler power | Gcal / h | 664862 | 619984 |
| Number of central heating stations | units | 22806 | |
| Length of thermal networks: - up to 200 mm in diameter - from 200 mm to 400 mm in diameter - from 400 mm to 600 mm in diameter - over 600 mm in diameter | km | 183545 | 176514 |
| km | 141673 | 131717 | |
| km | 28959 | 28001 | |
| km | 10558 | 10156 | |
| km | 5396 | 6640 | |
| The volume of heat produced: - in DH systems (with a capacity of more than 20 Gcal / h) - in DH systems (with a capacity of less than 20 Gcal / h) - on personal heat generators - on heat reclaimed and other installations | |||
| million Gcal | 1430 | 1446 | |
| million Gcal | 220 | 192 | |
| million Gcal | 358 | 402 | |
| million Gcal | 67 | 81 | |
| Suitable leave TE (no personal settings) | million Gcal | 1651 | 1638 |
| Average tariff for TE | RUB / Gcal | 195 | 470 |
| TE sales volume | billion rubles | 322 | 770 |
| A bit of housing stock equipped with central heating | % | 73 | 80 |
| A bit of housing stock equipped with a centralized hot water supply | % | 59 | 63 |
| The fraction of fuel used to create fuel cells from its total consumption | % | 37 | 33 |
| A fraction of natural gas used to create fuel cells from its total consumption | % | 42 | 41 |
| Average efficiency of boiler houses | % | 80 | 78 |
| Average fuel consumption rate at power plants | % | 58 | 57 |
| Losses in thermal networks, including unaccounted for | million Gcal | 227 | 244 |
| A fraction of losses in thermal networks | % | 13-15 | 14-17 |
| A bit of thermal networks in need of replacement | % | 16 | 25 |
| Emergency at heat supply sources and thermal networks | number of accidents | 107539 | 22592 |
| Technical potential for increasing the efficiency of use and transportation of fuel cells | million Gcal | 840 | |
| Actual costs of measures to increase * energy efficiency at heat supply sources | billion rubles | n / a | 9,5 |
* To the submitted form 1-winter in Russia, there are more than eighty thousand boiler houses.
Sources: Statistical reporting forms 11-TER, 1-TEP, 6-TP for 2000-2006. and CENEF estimates.
In 2006, one thousand 600 40 5 million Gcal TE was produced in DH systems. Power plants generated 600 40 two million Gcal, boiler houses - Nine hundred 10 million Gcal, heat recovery and other installations - Ninety-three million Gcal. Another approximately Four hundred and eleven million Gcal was generated by personal heat generators.
In 2005, the share of Russia accounted for 44% of the world centralized production of fuel cells. No country in the world can compare with Russia in terms of DH scale. The consumption of fuel cells exclusively in Moscow exceeds its total consumption in the Netherlands and Sweden taken together, and the heat consumption in St. Petersburg is higher than in such trend-setting countries in heat supply systems as Finland or Denmark.
Two hundred 70 nine million tons of fuel equivalent, or 29% of the total consumption of primary energy in Russia in Two thousand 6, was spent on the creation of thermal power plants for DH systems in 2006. thousand 6, about Three hundred and 20 million tons of fuel equivalent were used, or 33% of the total energy consumption. In 2006, 100 ninety one million tons of fuel equivalent were spent on the creation of fuel cells at centralized sources. natural gas, and together with personal installations - 218 million tons of fuel equivalent, which is 60% higher than the gas consumption for generating electricity.
All regional fuel markets can be divided into four main categories: super-large - Fifteen cities with fuel consumption of more than 10 million Gcal per year - large markets - 40 four towns with consumption from 2 to 10 million Gcal per year - medium-sized markets - hundreds of cities with consumption from 0.5 to 2 million Gcal per year - small markets - more than 40 thousand settlements with heat consumption from centralized sources of at least 0.5 million Gcal per year.
The latter group, characterized by multiple small and usually low-efficiency heating systems, is more problematic. It makes a disproportionately huge economic burden on ensuring the reliability of the heat supply system. It accounts for about 15% of the fuel produced, but more than 30-35% of the economy funds aimed at financing heat supply systems and their preparation for winter. These systems have the highest tariffs with the lowest consumer purchasing power and the highest debt levels.
The Russian TE market is one of the largest single-product markets in Russia. The annual volume of sales of TE to all consumers in Two thousand and seven amounted to approximately Eight hundred and 50 billion rubles. Of this amount, the cost of TE for the population amounted to three hundred 40 billion rubles, of which the population itself was charged two hundred 40 two billion rubles. In 2006, the payment discipline of the population was 94%. Accounts payable of heat supply systems at the end of 2006 amounted to 100 sixteen billion rubles, and accounts receivable - 100 twelve billion rubles.
In 2006, ninety-eight billion rubles were spent from the budgets of all levels for heat supply services for the population. Including compensation for differences in tariffs - 40 four billion rubles, for benefits - 30 four billion rubles. and subsidies to the poor - eight billion rubles. The average tariff for heat supplied to the population in Two thousand and seven was Seven hundred 40 5 rubles / Gcal. Tariffs vary greatly across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Fig. 1). The low tariff amounted to Three hundred 50 rubles / Gcal, and the larger one - 5 thousand 100 rubles / Gcal. Despite the preservation of subsidies for heat supply for the population of many regions, it still spends three times more money on the purchase of fuel cells than on the purchase of electronic energy.
In 2000-2006. processes of decentralization of heat supply took place. This was reflected in a decrease in the length of the TS by 4%, in a decrease in the proportion of networks of small diameters (less than 200 mm) from 70 seven to 74% and in an increase in the proportion of the number of boiler houses with a capacity of less than Three Gcal / h from 70 to 73% due to a decrease in the proportion boiler houses of average capacity, in the growth of a fraction of TE produced on personal installations from 18 to 20%.
The average frequency of failures in the operation of heat supply systems in Russia decreased in 2001-2006. 5 times. Policy in the field of reconstruction and modernization of heat supply systems in 2000-2006. was aimed primarily at increasing the reliability of their work. These efforts have borne fruit. The failure rate of heat pipelines decreased from 0.5 to 0.1 failures / km / year, i.e. to the brink of the applicable reliability level (in Finland it is at the level of 0.05-0.1 failure / km / year). But in almost all, especially small, heat supply systems, this indicator approaches a critical level (0.6 failures / km / year).
The efficiency of fuel cell production in the country as a whole has slightly decreased. The average efficiency of boiler houses dropped to 78%, and the average efficiency at power plants fell to 57%, which is lower than the efficiency of generating electricity only at the best new combined cycle plants.
The share of losses in the TS (including unaccounted losses) increased and reached 14-17% of the total consumption of TE and 18-20% of its useful use. The division in the process of pricing the costs of creating and transporting fuel cells led to an increase in the share of losses reflected in statistics on heat supply. But, these data are still far from adequate estimates of losses. In 2006, the share of repaired and replaced vehicles reached the level of 10%. But, the fundamental underrepair of the past years led to the fact that in 2006, 25% of all networks needed to be replaced (versus 16% in 2000).
The technical potential for increasing the efficiency of the use and transportation of fuel cells in Russia is estimated at eight hundred and 40 million Gcal, or 58% of the consumption of energy produced in centralized heat supply systems. The main part of this potential is an increase in the efficiency of using fuel cells in buildings (460 million Gcal) and in industry (160 million Gcal). Only the elimination of the imbalance between the demand and supply of heat for buildings through the automation of heat supply processes will reduce the need for heat energy for heating buildings by more than 100-30 million Gcal.
Investments in heat supply systems in 2006 amounted to 40 three billion rubles. A little less than 10 billion rubles were spent on the implementation of measures to increase the efficiency of fuel cell production in 2006, and another three billion rubles were spent on the transfer of the TS. when the need for expenses is more than 200-250 billion rubles. Maintaining such rates of modernization is fraught with stretching the realization of the energy saving potential for 20-25 years. The deterioration of heat supply facilities forces them to spend more than 20 three billion rubles once a year. for the purpose of their half repair.
The number of heat supply companies in Russia has decreased from 20 one thousand in 2000 to Seventeen thousand in 2000. But, in Russia, at the federal level, there are no management structures or a single policy for the development of heat supply systems. In recent years, the development of heat supply systems has been significantly influenced by the reform of the electric power industry, the reform of housing and communal services and the reform of local self-government. But, in the concept of the reform of the electric power industry, the position on the fate of the CHPP is not expressed. The reform of housing and communal services was aimed at corporatisation of heat supply companies, at recruiting personal capital in this area and at increasing the provision of metering devices. The concept of the reform of housing and communal services did not actually reflect the motivated characteristics of reliability, efficiency, properties and availability of heat supply services. The arrival of personal operators was complicated by the need to determine both the initial state of heat supply facilities and the determination of their motivated state.
The results of diagnostics of more than three hundred Russian heat supply systems made it possible to construct the main systemic difficulties in the functioning of Russian heat supply in the following way:
Lack of reliable data on the actual state of heat supply systems
The lack of growth in demand for heat in recent years against the background of a significant acceleration of economic growth
Lack of promising master plans, urban energy plans and refreshed heating schemes in the vast majority of settlements
Significant excess capacity of heat supply sources
Overestimated thermal loads of consumers
Excessive centralization of many heat supply systems
Decrease or stabilization at a small level of a fraction of heat generation at CHP plants in the absence of government policy to support and stimulate the joint generation of thermal and electronic energy
The highest level of losses in the TS, both due to unnecessary centralization, and due to the dilapidation of the TS and the growth of a fraction of networks in need of urgent replacement -
Lack of regulation of heat supply systems (the highest losses from "overheating" reaching 30-50%) -
Lack of trained personnel, especially at heat supply facilities in small settlements.
Heat sources:
The highest specific fuel consumption for the creation of TE-
Low saturation with instrumental accounting of fuel consumption and / or fuel supply at boiler-houses
Small residual resource and wear and tear of equipment
Violation of the terms and regulations of work on adjusting the modes of boilers -
Violation of the properties of the fuel, causing burner failures -
Low level of automation, lack of automation or the use of non-core automation -
Lack or low quality of water treatment
Failure to comply with the temperature schedule
Highest fuel price -
Lack and lack of qualifications of boiler room personnel.
Heating network:
The underestimated (in comparison with the real) level of losses in the TS, included in the tariffs for heat, which significantly underestimates the economic efficiency of expenses for the reconstruction of the TS -
The highest level of actual losses in the vehicle -
The highest level of costs for the operation of the vehicle (about 50% of all costs in heat supply systems) -
Excessive centralization of a fundamental part of heat supply systems, which causes overestimated losses in the TS-
The highest degree of vehicle wear and excess of the critical level of failure rate in a number of settlements
Unsatisfactory technical condition of the vehicle, violation of thermal insulation and the highest loss of fuel and energy
Violation of the hydraulic regimes of the vehicle and the accompanying "undershoots" and "overheating" of individual buildings.
Heat supply service consumers:
Ambiguity of the purchased product: resources (Gcal, l) or services to ensure comfort (temperature and humidity in the room) -
A significant overestimation of the estimated use of communal resources in houses and economy buildings in comparison with the actual one with a low degree of coverage of buildings by instrumental accounting for the use of TE-
Low degree of organization of the population as a consumer of communal resources
Low coverage of households with apartment metering of hot water and means of regulating heat consumption -
Low thermal protection properties of residential buildings and their deterioration due to missing repairs of the enclosing structures of residential and public buildings
The lack of incentives for organizations operating the housing stock to increase the efficiency of the use of communal resources
The limited ability and willingness of the population to pay for heat supply services and the associated energetic opposition to the increase in heat tariffs and a low level of collection of payments.
Main Technological Systems
D. P. Kozhemyakin
LLC "PSH" Energia "
st. Khimzavodskaya, 11, Berdsk, Novosibirsk region, 633004, Russia
Email: [email protected]
STRATEGIC OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE URBAN HEAT SUPPLY SYSTEM
This article proposes a procedure for the formation of strategic scenarios for the development of an urban heat supply system, combining its centralized and decentralized shares and optimized under the given conditions. To implement this procedure, the so-called scenario-situational approach was used, formalized by an economic-mathematical model in a variant formulation.
Key words: urban heat supply system, centralization, decentralization.
At present, the overwhelming majority of forecasts for the development of communal heat supply systems boil down to considering strategic scenarios in which centralized and decentralized 1 (local, autonomous) heat supply are present in one share or another. Recall that in the USSR, centralized heat supply prevailed. In Russia, 92% of urban and 20% of rural residents are served with the help of centralized systems, that is, approximately 73% of the country's population.
There are different views on the essence of decentralization. The report of the Expert Innovation Bureau 2 directly states that local systems must take place, they are effective in the most critical places - in areas of massive new buildings and intensive growth of industrial production. In such places, according to the authors, it is necessary to commission relatively small (up to 25 MW) gas turbine thermal power plants and thermal power plants (construction period - from three months to a year) to cover local demand. The publication cites the statement of Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences O. Favorsky: “... a radical way to ensure internal energy security is the decentralization of the energy sector, which takes into account the alteration of boiler houses operating on gas. in small power plants, will give in Russia not only an increase in the production of heat and electricity, but will also become one of the bases for saving the same gas ”. Nevertheless, the authors of the publication warn that "thoughtless autonomization and localization contradict the world mainstream - the centralization of heat supply systems."
At the All-Russian Power Engineering Institute named after V.I. Krzhizhanovsky, it is assumed that in 20-30 years the share of heat produced at CHPPs in district heating systems will decrease from 43 to 35%, and the importance of autonomous installations will increase. In favor of the existence of decentralized heat supply, the words of Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences S. Chistovich are quoted: “The current level of centralization of heat supply in cities should not be viewed passively as an established or spontaneous factor, the expected value of which is only predicted. This indicator should be one of the main parameters of urban energy management. Its planned values should be determined based on government considerations and should be reflected in strategic documents for the development of engineering support and environmental protection. Cities, on the other hand, should not hinder, but, on the contrary, encourage the construction of local sources, but in the area of action
1 Not included in the existing established centralized heat supply systems.
2 Innovations in the construction cluster: barriers and prospects: Report / Expert Innovation Bureau (http://www.mno-expert.ru/consulting/building).
ISSN 1818-7862. NSU Bulletin. Series: Socio-economic sciences. 2008. Volume 8, Issue 2 © D.P. Kozhemyakin, 2008
They should be permitted only as peak ones by CHPPs. ”3. The authors of the publication fully agree with S. Chistovich, stating that now there is a need to change the district heating schemes and supplement them with autonomous (local) systems, but necessary only for peak loads. In conclusion, it is concluded that the crisis of the 1990s. showed the fundamental shortcomings of centralized systems, therefore, the modern concept of the development of communal heat power engineering should provide for the presence of "reasonable (optimal) centralization of heat supply" 4.
Scenario forecasts for the development of a mixed (with centralized and decentralized components) heat supply system were officially announced in the Energy Strategy until 2020, which proclaimed “a revision of the heat supply policy of cities and enterprises in terms of optimal energy ". This revision was based on the following fundamental provisions:
Intensive reduction of heat losses in district heating systems (DHS);
Increase in the share of the population and the social sphere in the consumption of heat from public DH;
Significant increase in heat production in economic structures not related to public DH;
High growth rate of the number of progressive autonomous sources in the decentralized heat supply sector.
The need to develop a mixed heat supply system is also present in a later document, which can also be classified as official, since it was developed on behalf of the Ministries of Economic Development and Trade and Industry and Energy - in the draft Concept of Russia's Energy Strategy for the period up to 2030. One of the strategic conceptual goals for the development of electricity and heat supply in this document is "the most efficient use of the possibilities of cogeneration and the development of decentralized energy and heat supply."
There have been attempts to evaluate the extreme versions of scenario forecasts from the standpoint of the present. Thus, the option of preserving the existing centralized heating systems for general use through their renovation and reconstruction was assessed. According to specialists' calculations, its implementation will require about $ 72 billion in capital investments until 2020, which, given the projected rise in gas and coal prices, will increase the heat price by 2-3 times to socially unacceptable levels - at least 3-4 times. The option of a widespread and complete transition to decentralized heat supply, according to them, is also hardly realistic for economic, technical and organizational-economic reasons (the authors do not detail these reasons). The conclusion is obvious: since none of these options is acceptable, their rational effective combination is necessary, which should increase the reliability and efficiency of heat supply.
It should be noted that the combination of centralized and decentralized heat supply is a widespread form of organizing this process in almost all countries of the European Community. Thus, the Danish power system (described in publications as a "Danish energy miracle") consists of 2/3 large district heating systems operating from large CHP and mini CHP,: / 3 belongs to the decentralized heat supply sector, including gas supply systems with individual heating installations.
The question is not so much to create such a system in Russia, but to make the communal heating system as efficient as possible in Russian conditions. At the same time, it is necessary to keep in mind the planned future of the domestic economy associated with the innovation paradigm of its development. This paradigm should naturally transform the prevailing views on the development of energy
3 Innovations in the construction cluster: barriers and prospects: Report / Expert Innovation Bureau (http://www.inno-expert.ru/consulting/building).
general and heat power engineering in particular. In one way or another, promising directions for the development of the energy sector should already reflect the factors of technical and technological development, structural shifts in the fuel component of the energy sector, aggravation of environmental requirements, and social shifts. In Russia, it is inevitable to expand the use of alternative energy sources, energy carriers and energy technologies, the emergence of radically new ones - nuclear power on fast neutrons with a full fuel cycle, hydrogen energy, superconductivity, unconventional renewable energy resources, fuel cells. Gas hydrates and the dream of mankind - thermonuclear energy - cannot be disregarded.
According to experts, alternative energy will not play a decisive role in the world energy balance in the next 5-10 years, however, conditions for its intensive development are already being created in most developed countries. Russia should also be ready, despite the high reserves of hydrocarbons, to increase the share of alternative (non-hydrocarbon) methods of generating energy.
Let us consider individual technical and technological advances in practice in the field of autonomous (decentralized) heat supply to consumers. Thus, heat generators produced by the Yusmar research and production firm 5 can be used for autonomous heating of various residential, industrial and warehouse premises in places remote from heat and gas pipelines, the connection to which will inevitably lead to significant capital investments. Such premises can be: residential houses, cottages, summer cottages and summer cottages, garages, greenhouses, production and storage facilities for various purposes.
Heat generators can also be used at facilities that require autonomous, independent support, such as military camps, hospitals, schools, public utilities, etc.
The use of heat generators instead of traditionally used boilers of various types is economically beneficial due to:
No need for the purchase, transportation, storage of fuel and the expense of money associated with this;
No need for maintenance of boiler room service personnel;
Absence of expenses for construction, repair and maintenance of heating networks, as well as for annual preventive preparation for the heating season;
Freeing up a significant area required for the placement of a boiler house, access roads and a fuel warehouse.
Heating installations of the company "Yusmar" in terms of the set of operational parameters, compactness and simplicity of design, surpass any other types of heating boilers, except for gas ones.
Gas boilers are very promising in the range of household heat sources 6. The main areas of application of household gas boilers are the residential sector, in particular for low-rise and cottage construction, for residents of rural areas and suburbs living in individual or semi-detached houses, as well as summer residents.
Currently, residents of new multi-storey buildings or owners of large shopping and entertainment centers can acquire their own thermal power plant (mini-CHP), located, for example, on the roofs of buildings. There is an example of an operating mini-CHP, built for an office and retail complex in Odintsovo, Moscow Region. The installed electric power of this rooftop station is 360 kW, thermal power is 625 kW. In the summer period, the station from waste heat (since heating is not needed), with the help of absorption machines, generates 280 kW of cold used for air conditioning. The cost of electricity from such a mini-CHP, even with free, or "commercial", cost of natural gas is about 0.80 rubles / kWh. According to the developers, the appearance of such stations will make it possible to open a new, very significant source of replenishment of the budget of the municipality,
5 See: http://altenergy.narod.ru/usmar_noteka.html.html
to reduce the prices for energy resources, to reduce social tension in the course of reforms in housing and communal services. For example, 1 MW of capacity of a mini-CHP plant can bring about 8 million rubles. income per year 7.
The most promising direction in the development of autonomous heat supply is considered to be the use of heat pumps 8. Already existing heat pump units (HPU) allow, at a unit cost of 1 kW, to obtain 3-7 kW of heat at the output for heat supply, depending on the temperature level of the low-potential heat source. The use of such installations abroad is becoming the norm and allows reducing the consumption of fuel resources by 10% annually.
According to the forecasts of the International Energy Committee on Heat Pumps, the heat output produced by heat pumps for the needs of the population in developed countries by 2020 will amount to 75%. As a result, it is expected to reduce fuel consumption for heating by 90% by 2020. In addition, the use of HPU in the near future will significantly reduce the negative impact of energy on the environment 9.
The introduction of heat pump installations is currently taking place at a rapid pace. Mass production and use of heat pumps is carried out in the USA, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Canada and other developed countries. Currently, more than 50 million HPUs of various capacities are in operation in the world 10.
Autonomous systems based on cogeneration units (CHP) allow combined production of electricity and heat by transferring heat generated during engine operation through a system of heat exchangers to the heating circuit. Most European countries are following the path of widespread use of CU. Currently, the share of electricity generated by KU in Western Europe is 10%. The operating experience of the existing CHP shows that it is possible to save natural gas up to 40% in comparison with the separate production of heat and electricity.
Along with the indicated methods of autonomous heat supply, the development and widespread introduction of energy-converting systems based on machines operating in direct and reverse Stirling cycles (Stirling machines) is also being carried out. This direction in the development of small-scale power generation has become widespread in developed countries over the past 10-15 years and is considered the most promising in the 21st century. eleven
Comparative analysis and assessment of various options for a mixed heat supply system, in our opinion, should be a mandatory attribute of strategic planning at any level of the organizational hierarchy - at the level of the country as a whole, at the regional, city and municipal levels. Of course, each level should differ in its own goals and objectives. This article proposes a procedure for the valuation of possible options for combining the shares of the centralized and decentralized parts of the heat supply system of a small city, considered as strategic scenarios for its development. To implement this procedure, the so-called scenario-situational model was used (by analogy with). For this model, at the initial stage, scenario options for the development of the urban heating system are formed, restrictions and criteria for evaluating options are determined. In a formalized form, the proposed scenario-situational model is described by a linear economic and mathematical model with discrete variables. To formulate an economic problem, we will consider several prerequisites.
At present, we can speak, for example, of a rather high probability of the existence of such situations in the investment support for the implementation of medium-term programs for the development of heat supply (as detailed parts of strategic scenarios of any level), as a sharp increase in tariffs with a simultaneous increase in subsidizing the population; attracting the necessary amount of public investment with a hard
7 See: http://altenergy.narod.ru/usmar_noteka.html.html
regulation of the tariff. At the same time, both situations imply the long-term preservation and development of district heating.
From the standpoint of using mixed heat supply systems, it is necessary to form and evaluate options for structural changes, consisting in the gradual replacement of centralized heat supply to a rational size with local or autonomous ones.
It should be noted that the heat supply organization operating in the district heating system is functioning and will continue to function for a rather long time in a complex environment of interconnections of cash flows and organizational and functional interdependencies. The schematic diagram of cash flows and organizational and functional ties in the urban heat supply system is as follows:
The cash flows themselves can also be presented in the form of a variety of options. For example, at present, according to experts 12, the total amount of subsidies to the population in all areas in the regions is 40-80% related to heat supply, and the subsidies to the population in the field of heat supply are several times higher than the budgetary expenditures of all levels for the reconstruction and new construction of systems. heat supply. In these conditions, it is obvious that it is necessary to assess the options for using funds spent on subsidies with an increase in tariffs as investments in the development of heat supply systems.
12 Antonov N., Tatevosova L. Tariff of development and investment of heat supply of municipalities 2007 See: http://df7.ecfor.rssi.ru/
Taking into account these prerequisites, the economic formulation of the task of optimizing the strategic options for the functioning and development of the urban heat supply system is as follows.
Of the entire set of formed methods (options) for providing consumers with thermal energy, it is necessary to determine one that would satisfy the given conditions (restrictions) and in which the criterion function would take extreme values. Such a task can be formalized in general form and can be described, for example, by the following economic and mathematical model.
1. Objective function - the condition for maximizing or minimizing the criterion function:
X cr ■ zr ^ exp1 hetit,
where r is the index of the option (strategic scenario) of heat supply to consumers
(r = 1, ..., K);
s - the value of the criterion indicator for the i-th heat supply option;
zr is the intensity of using the i-th option.
2. Conditions and restrictions:
The total value of the intensities of using heat supply options should not exceed one:
X ^< 1 г - 1,..., К;
The volume of the cost of the supplied heat energy in the final year of the forecast period should not be less than the specified total (when using natural meters, for example, Gcal, the inequality sign changes to equality due to the effect of standards in heat supply):
X Chg> 0,
where chg is the volume of the cost of supplied heat energy in the final year of the forecast period for the i-th heat supply option; 0 is the total demand of heat consumers, which consists of the volume of heat supplied by the centralized (<2с) и децентрализованным (0а) способами, т. е. 0 = 0с+ 0а;
The total amount of costs of the k-th type for the implementation of the i-th option should not exceed the specified value Pk,. With a centralized method of heat supply:
X Prk ■ dc ■ ^< Рк, к = 1, ..., К,
where ргк - specific costs of the k-th type per 1 Gcal of supplied heat; Рк - the specified limitation on the costs of the k-th type;
The total amount of costs of the 5th type for the implementation of the i-th option should not exceed the specified value P5 with a decentralized method of heat supply:
X Рг5 ■ 0а< Р* , 5 = 1, ..., 5.
As you know, this formulation of the problem allows you to use linear programming methods to solve it, however, to form the matrix of the problem, it is necessary to develop a variety of methods (options) of heat supply, differing in the levels of centralization and decentralization, with all kinds of costs. The options were built as follows. For each of them, the level of decentralized heat supply was set (from 0 to 0.1) and the cost indicators per 1 Gcal of supplied heat were calculated. The following specific cost indicators (per 1 Gcal) were used in the calculations:
Heat supplied from DHS;
Investment premium to the tariff for DH development;
Connection fee to DHS;
Social support of the population to pay for heat energy;
Subsidies to the population for payment of heat energy;
Consolidated budget expenditures for communal heat supply;
Private investment in TPA.
The quantitative values of tariffs (maintenance and operating costs), investment markups and fees for connecting to main heating networks, as well as the mid-term forecast for the volume of heat supplied were taken from the city's medium-term Investment program for the development of the heat supply system, and average indicators were used for all social budget indicators. for the Novosibirsk region from the statistical collection of Rosstat "Housing and consumer services for the population in Russia" for 2007
All formed options differed in cost indicators, while the nature of the change in these indicators for the options was based on some prerequisites. So, for all the options, an increase in tariffs, specific investment surcharges and connection fees was envisaged in relation to these indicators of the basic state of the city heating system. For district heating options, this growth ranged from 3% to 13%, in line with the projected rate of utility price inflation over the next 3-5 years for the Novosibirsk Oblast. For options with different shares of decentralized heat supply, the above specific indicators increased above the maximum value corresponding to 13% growth, in some proportion to the increasing share of decentralized heat supply. The indicators of social budget payments to the population had the same character of changes in terms of variants. It is assumed that these payments (social support and subsidies) will remain for a long time, exceeding the forecast period adopted in the calculations. For the “decentralized” options, the values of private investment varied and the indicators of the remaining cash flows were adjusted (see the figure above). Introducing private investment into the raw data when testing hypotheses with decentralized heating was particularly challenging. There are no statistics on this indicator yet, with the exception of some data on the cost of various types of heat generating equipment. Specific investments in decentralized heat supply (private investments) were taken at the base level slightly lower than the payment for connecting new consumers to the district heating system and decreased as the share of decentralized heat supply increased. In total, 60 variants-scenarios of the possible development of the urban heating system under consideration were formed for the calculations (Table 1 shows some of them).
Option I, for example, corresponds to the scenario according to which the development of the heat system under consideration for the forecast period does not provide for the decentralization of heat supply, that is, the entire increase in heat production will be achieved only due to the development of the centralized existing heat system. At the same time, the tariff and both components of own investments - the investment premium and the connection fee - reach the maximum value for centralized heat supply, taking into account the predicted increase in these indicators. Social budget payments to the population also reach a relatively large value.
Option II depicts a scenario with a 5% decentralized heating supply. Accordingly, in this option, as in all mixed options, private investments appear. As you can see from the table. 1, the tariff for heat supplied from district heating, as well as both investment specific indicators, are higher than in the variant with only district heating. It is assumed that with the advent of decentralized heat supply, the cash flows going to the maintenance and development of the existing centralized heat supply system will decrease, which may lead to a shortage of investments even with a smaller volume of supply of centralized heat. Therefore, the increase in specific investment indicators put in the scenario acts as a kind of compensation for the decrease in investment in district heating and makes the various options commensurate.
Option III describes a scenario close to a hypothetical one (due to a relatively short forecast period), according to which the entire future increase in heat supply will be carried out only through decentralized heat supply. In this scenario
there are no investment indicators for the existing heat generating organization, therefore private investment is of maximum importance. Five such scenarios were formed with different values of private investment.
Table 1
Strategic scenarios for the development of the heat supply system
Indicator Initial options
The volume of heat supplied by the heat supply system, Gcal 519 909 519 909 519 909
District heating (DH), Gcal 519 909 493 914 461 590
Increase in the volume of heat supplied from DH 58 319 32 324 0
Decentralized heat supply (DTS), Gcal 0 25 995 58 319
Tariff for heat supplied from DH, rub. 784 794 738
Volume of heat supplied from DH, thousand rubles 407 862 392 213 340 792
Investment premium to the tariff for DH development, rubles 1 929 2 025 0
Connection fee to DH, RUB 2 958 3 106 0
Own investments of the DH organization per 1 Gcal, rub. 4 887 5 131 0
Own investments for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 285,000 165 860 0
Social support of the population to pay for heat energy per 1 Gcal, rub. 106 106 100
Subsidies for payment of heat energy per 1 Gcal, rub. 71 71 68
Budget payments to the population per 1 Gcal of heat, rubles 177 177 168
Budget payments to the population for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 91 830 87 239 77 591
Consolidated budget expenditures per 1 Gcal of municipal heat supply, rub. 226 226 275
Consolidated budget expenditures for communal heat power engineering for the entire volume from DH, thousand rubles 117 335 111 469 126 730
Total investments per 1 Gcal of heat supplied from DHS per 1 Gcal, rub. 4 887 5 131 0
Total investment. for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 285,000 165 860 16 456
Private investment in TPA for 1 Gcal, rub. 0 2 664 4 500
Private investments for the entire volume of heat from the diesel fuel system, thousand rubles 0 69 250 262 436
Total investments for the development of the city heating system, thousand rubles 285,000 235 111 278 891
Total costs for the maintenance and development of the city heating system per 1 Gcal, rub. 6 074 8 992 5 681
Total costs for the maintenance and development of the city heating system for the entire volume of heat, thousand rubles 3 157 776 4 674 816 2 953 574
For all options, the total costs for the maintenance and development of the heating system were calculated by summing up all cost and investment indicators. This indicator can be considered as a system-wide indicator that can be useful to the authorities when justifying, for example, the financial support of the urban infrastructure development plan or when developing a master plan for the development of the city.
As constraints in the task, we used indicators of the volume of supplied heat in physical and monetary terms, total investments for the entire supplied volume of heat, total investments for centralized heat supply, total social payments, as well as the size of the tariff, and the total values of private investments. All of the above indicators, as well as the total costs for the entire supplied volume of heat, were the criterion indicators in turn.
The solution of the problem was carried out using the software package "Search for a solution" in Microsoft Excel. In total, more than thirty solutions were carried out, of which 17 scenarios were selected for the use of subsequent optimization calculations of long-term plans at the level of a heat generating organization (Table 2).
table 2
Some results of optimization calculations
Indicator Optimized solutions
The volume of heat supplied by the city heat supply system, Gcal 519 909 519 909 519 909
District heating (DH), Gcal 519 909 519 909 497 598
Increase in the volume of heat supplied from DH 58 319 58 319 36 008
Decentralized heat supply (DTS), Gcal 0 0 22 311
Tariff for heat supplied from DH, rub. 784 695 735
Volume of heat supplied from DH, thousand rubles 407 609 361310 366 141
Investment premium to the tariff for DH development, rubles 1 928 1 709 1 872
Connection fee to DH, RUB 2 956 2 620 2 871
Own investments of the DH organization per 1 Gcal, rub. 4 884 4 329 4 742
Own investments for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 284 823 252 471 168 333
Social support of the population to pay for heat energy per 1 Gcal, rub. 106 93 99
Subsidies for payment of heat energy per 1 Gcal, rub. 71 62 66
Budget payments to the population per 1 Gcal of heat, rubles 177 155 165
Budget payments to the population for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 91,773 80,770 82,000
Consolidated budget expenditures per 1 Gcal of municipal heat supply, rub. 226 255 242
Consolidated budget expenditures for communal heat power engineering for the entire volume from DH, thousand rubles 117 412 132 470 120 467
Total investments per 1 Gcal of heat supplied from DHS per 1 Gcal, rub. 4 884 4 336 4 742
Total investments for the entire volume of heat from DH, thousand rubles 284 823 252 890 168 333
Private investment in TPA for 1 Gcal, rub. 0 0 1 077
Private investments for the entire volume of heat from the diesel fuel system, thousand rubles 0 0 56 000
Total investments for the development of the city heating system, thousand rubles 284 823 252 890 224 333
Total costs for the maintenance and development of the city heating system per 1 Gcal, rub. 6 070 5 441 6 961
Total costs for the maintenance and development of the city heating system for the entire volume of heat, thousand rubles 3 155 964 2 829 047 3619301
Solution I was obtained for the following conditions:
Full satisfaction of the forecast needs of consumers in thermal energy in the amount of 519.9 thousand Gcal;
The value of the tariff for heat energy should not be less than the base size;
The volume of heat production in district heating in value terms should not be less than the specified value of 358.7 million rubles. (the minimum size with a base rate of 690 rubles);
The size of the own investment funds of the heat generating organization should not be less than the projected amount of investments in the development of the heating system (250 million rubles);
Total costs as a criterion indicator should be minimal.
Under these conditions, centralized heat supply fully satisfies the needs of consumers, but at the same time the values of the tariff and investment indicators reach the maximum value, and the total investment exceeds the projected amount (see Table 2). A significant excess of the base level (80.8 million rubles) is also observed in terms of budget payments to the population (91.8 million rubles).
Optimized solution II reflects in a certain way the social scenario of heat supply development. It was obtained under the conditions of full satisfaction of the forecast needs of consumers in thermal energy in the amount of 519.9 thousand Gcal; not exceeding the minimum increase in the base rate (RUB 695); equality to basic
the size (80.8 million rubles) of the amount of social budget payments to the population; minimization of total costs for the maintenance and development of the heating system.
Under such conditions, the expenditures of the consolidated budget for communal heat energy reach a maximum value, which, as it were, compensate for the lack of investment in the development of the heat system. In this decision, the restriction on social budget payments has a positive shadow price, which indicates the inexpediency of increasing these payments when the tariff for heat energy received in the decision.
Solution III presents a scenario with a 5% share of decentralized heating. In this solution, in addition to the conditions of the previous version, the condition of not exceeding a certain specified value of investments in decentralized heat supply (private investments) was also fulfilled. As you can see from the table. 2, the decision does not provide for a sharp increase in the tariff and investment indicators relative to the base values (decision II). As in the previous solution described, the restriction on social budget transfers has a positive shadow price.
All the solutions given can be considered as external conditions for the problem of optimizing a promising production program of a heat generating organization, implemented in the general scheme of strategic planning for the development of heat supply.
In conclusion, we note that the attempt considered in the article to optimize the process of the formation of possible situations in the medium-term strategic planning in heat supply, of course, should cause criticism, nevertheless it is fully justified. With the chosen formulation of the problem, a relatively large number of possible situations in heat supply can be traced, reflecting real and hypothetical trends in the dynamics of indicators, which allows us to say about a high share of objectivity of the results obtained.
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Received by the editorial board on April 15, 2008
D. P. Kozhemyakin
Strategic Variants of Development of a Urban System Heat Supply
In the given article some procedure of shaping of optimized possible versions in an intermediate term mode of strategic planning of development of a urban system heat supply, based on a combination centralized and decentralized by its share is offered. For realization of this procedure the so-called scenario-contingency approach formalized by an economic-mathematical model in alternative statement was used.
Keywords: urban system heat supply, centralization, decentralization.
